San Antonio – The Texas Public Policy Foundation (TPPF) today presented to the Texas Transportation Commission a comprehensive analysis of the Austin-San Antonio Corridor commuter rail project. The analysis is a formal response to the official Carter-Burgess feasibility study sponsored by the Texas Department of Transportation. “Although Carter-Burgess concluded that commuter rail between Austin and San Antonio is feasible, we found no evidence to support this conclusion even after using their data. Indeed, far from being feasible, it would be an unprecedented waste of scarce transportation dollars for this rapidly growing transportation corridor,” said Jeff Judson, TPPF President.

The analysis was conducted by Wendell Cox, an international transit expert, a Congressional appointee to the national Amtrak Reform Council and a TPPF Senior Fellow. “Any inference that the Austin-San Antonio commuter rail project could have a material impact on congestion in the corridor would be a serious overstatement,” said Mr. Cox.

The analysis includes an assessment of all other commuter rail projects around the U.S.

TPPF is a nonprofit, nonpartisan research institute dedicated to the core principles of limited government, free enterprise and individual responsibility. The Foundation conducts no “contract” research and accepts no government funds.

Key findings

 

  • Commuter rail has been proposed as an alternative to highway construction in the Austin-San Antonio corridor. Commuter rail would involve upgrading a freight railroad right-of-way between the two metropolitan areas, approximately a 110 mile route at speeds up to 79 miles per hour.

     

  • The ridership projection is reasonable yet inconsequential. A feasibility report for the Texas Department of Transportation, the Carter-Burgess Report, projects ridership of 8,000 daily, increasing to 11,000 in 2020. Compared to the daily traffic in the corridor, the projected ridership is minuscule. At its peak, Interstate 35 has a current daily volume of over 330,000 persons in over 200,000 vehicles.

     

  • Commuter rail would have little impact on traffic congestion. On average, the number of vehicles removed by commuter rail would be less than one out of every 200. Even at peak hour levels, two way commuter rail volume at the highest loading point would barely equal 1/10th of the hourly passenger capacity of a one-way single lane on Interstate 35.

     

  • Commuter rail travel times would be longer than auto. Commuter rail would require one hour and 43 minutes to travel from downtown Austin to downtown San Antonio, a trip that is estimated at one hour and 20 minutes by automobile. An additional 45 minutes can be added each way for driving to the station, parking and waiting for the train.

     

  • Capital costs will be near $500 million, but could be higher. The Carter-Burgess Report projects capital costs at $475 million. However, a recent National Academy of Sciences report confirms that underestimation of costs and overestimation of usage is a normal pattern for large infrastructure projects, such as commuter rail lines. It is estimated that the Austin-San Antonio commuter rail line could require up to twice as much money to build (nearly one billion dollars). In comparison, one freeway lane running each direction could be added to Interstate 35 from San Antonio to Georgetown for an estimated $425 million.

     

  • The commuter rail line will be costly to operate. It is estimated that the cost of operating the Austin-San Antonio commuter rail line will be more than double the average cost per passenger mile of other new commuter rail routes.

     

  • A new luxury car could be provided to each new rider. The annual cost per new daily commuter would be $12,200. Leasing each new rider a luxury automobile in perpetuity would be less expensive.

     

  • The cost per automobile removed could finance six Habitat for Humanity houses. It is estimated that the cost to attract an automobile driver will be nearly $40 per trip. This equates to $17,500 annually, which is one-half the amount required to build a Habitat for Humanity house in San Antonio, or enough to pay the mortgages on nearly six such houses.

     

  • The commuter rail line will require a tax increase. It is expected that funding will be obtained from the federal government and from a new local tax. The new local tax is estimated at the equivalent of a 0.125 cent sales tax. Because of cost overruns, this tax could be as high as 0.5 cents (four times as high).

     

  • The commuter rail line may not be safe. The commuter rail line will have more than 100 grade crossings. Grade crossings significantly retard safety and pose the potential for catastrophic accidents since the train will run at approximately a 79 mile per hour speed. Nationwide, commuter rail systems cause 1.31 fatalities per 100 million passenger miles compared to only 0.75 fatalities for U.S. urban autos.

     

  • The Austin-San Antonio commuter rail system would be more costly than highway improvements. It is estimated that the Austin-San Antonio commuter rail line will have costs per passenger mile 10 times that of the most effective bus systems and seven times that of building and operating a new freeway lane in both directions over the entire route (includes the private costs of automobile operation and ownership).

     

  • There are alternatives that can reduce traffic congestion. Traffic congestion has been reduced by expanding freeways and using high occupancy vehicle (HOV) lanes and high occupancy toll (HOT) lanes. Further, technological advances are expected to substantially increase the capacity of urban freeways. There is sufficient space to expand Interstate 35 throughout most of the proposed route, and additional traffic relief will be provided by the proposed State Highway 130.

     

  • Considerable progress has been made in improving air quality in the United States and is directly attributable to improved vehicle emission technology. Passenger automobiles will have zero emissions in the not-too-distant future. On the other hand, virtually none of the air pollution improvement in the U.S. is attributable to transit, much less urban rail systems such as commuter rail. Because urban rail does not materially reduce automobile use, it cannot materially reduce air pollution. Rail systems are an exceedingly expensive strategy for reducing air pollution.