Today, the Texas Public Policy Foundation released a report summarizing the results of a multi-day simulation exercise that examined a renewed humanitarian and national security crisis on America’s southern border.

The effort assembled two dozen experts to game out what the first nine months of a Biden Administration might see on the U.S.-Mexico border. The team included former Members of Congress, current and former U.S. law enforcement personnel, lawyers, academics, journalists, and veterans.

“Unfortunately, it’s easy to forget the state of our southern border in early 2017 when President Trump took office—and easy to forget the hard work against much opposition to reduce the tragedy of human trafficking and the smuggling of deadly drugs,” said TPPF Executive Director Kevin Roberts. “Our border crisis simulation showed how quickly those gains could be lost in the coming months.”

Some of the key findings in the border crisis simulation report included:

  • Expectations of a softened approach, including some form of amnesty, will motivate new waves of would-be migrants to start the arduous trek north
  • The Biden Administration will be slow to understand and react to the magnitude of the problem
  • The stability of the Northern Triangle nations of Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador will be challenged by an escalation of cartel violence
  • Drug cartels and their suppliers in China may shift to the production of carfentanyl, an opioid 100 times as potent as fentanyl, resulting in an increase in American drug overdose deaths

“The simulation’s results were alarming,” said TPPF Vice President of National Initiatives Chuck DeVore. “The rapid pace that the border crisis developed along with a breakdown in stability to the south was sobering.”

DeVore, a retired U.S. Army intelligence officer, designed and ran the simulation.

To read “The Coming Border Crisis” report in full, please visit: