There is no shortage of polls or pundits offering predictions on the outcome of the 2020 Presidential election. But “outcomes” include more than simply election results; who is gaming out how America—and the world—will respond? We are.

While national polls suggest an edge for Vice President Joe Biden, the winner isn’t determined by national polls—it is determined by who wins the Electoral College. Victory is won in the states.

Due to the political stoking of fears of contracting COVID-19, a massive push has been made, mostly by the left, to encourage voting by mail. This significantly alters the calculus on Election Day and completely upends the post-election period.